The current President of the United States, Donald Trump, has become the third President in history to be impeached in the House of Representatives, and is now expected to face a trial in the Senate.
But according to the latest odds offered by UK bookmakers, his chances of being removed from office at the end of this process remain small.
The woman who has led the process, Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, was confident at the beginning of the process that Trump would be impeached, and the odds in political betting markets reflected that confidence. The odds on his being impeached in 2019 dropped significantly once the process started, going odds on and continuing to shorten ahead of the day when he was formally impeached, last Thursday.
But the impeachment process is only half of the equation. The next stage would be for a trial in the Senate, which could lead to his removal from office. However, the staunch support of Republican senators means such an eventuality currently looks unlikely. Odds comparison site Oddschecker shows that Trump is rated as a 1/10 shot to see out the remainder of his term in office, which runs until next November, and 7/1 not to get that far.
Given his defiance so far, he seems unlikely to follow the example of another Republican President Richard Nixon, and resign. But there could yet be another twist in this story. Pelosi is not under any obligation to submit the articles of impeachment to the Senate, and could choose to delay that move, either to allow pressure to build on the Republican senators or to cause maximum damage to the President. So the Trump Full Term market seems set to be one worth watching as we move into the early weeks of 2020.